“Mixed results in the equity markets”
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Text continues below the infographic. There you can read an interview with Jeroen Roskam from Achmea Investment Management. In this article, Jeroen explains how the fourth quarter of 2025 unfolded. “Movements in interest rates affect the financial markets. We follow these developments closely, but our investment policy remains focused on the long term".
Stronger than expected
In the fourth quarter, the global economy showed a mixed picture. In Japan, the government announced a major stimulus package. In the United States, the economy cooled and unemployment rose slightly, based on macroeconomic figures released after the temporary government shutdown. In contrast, the eurozone economy grew by 1.3% in October 2025 , which is stronger than expected. At the same time, growth remained fragile due to a weak industrial sector and cautious consumers. Globally, uncertainty increased about the pace at which the economy is slowing.
Difficult choices
Central banks faced difficult choices in the fourth quarter. The US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates in October and December, each time by 0.25 percentage points, to support the economy. The European Central Bank kept rates unchanged but indicated that cuts were possible if the economy weakened further.
The Bank of England also cut interest rates in December, while the Bank of Japan raised rates.
Concerns about high equity valuations and AI optimism
Financial markets moved sharply in the fourth quarter, but without clear direction. In October, equity prices rose further, driven by strong corporate results and enthusiasm around artificial intelligence. In November, investors became more cautious and concerns grew about high equity valuations. When expectations are high, disappointing results can quickly lead to price declines ,which happened for several technology companies, such as Nvidia. December again showed a mixed picture: global equities closed slightly higher, while long-term interest rates continued to rise. In the eurozone, the 30-year interest rate climbed to 3.24%. Precious metals remained in demand. Silver in particular rose strongly, gaining more than 25% in December,
There was considerable movement in financial markets in the fourth quarter of 2025. It is reassuring that Shell Pension invests for the long term and that the investment portfolios are well diversified.
Your pension pot after the fourth quarter of 2025
How has your pension pot been affected by the investment results and by political and economic developments?
Return portfolio: over 3% growth in the last quarter, 12% growth over 2025
The Return portfolio delivered a positive yield of more than 3% in the fourth quarter, mainly driven by equity investments. The total equity portfolio achieved a yield of around 4.5%. Across the whole of 2025, the preliminary yield is almost 12%, higher than our long term expectations. Strong equity performance, gains from currency hedging, and positive contributions from active management all supported this result.
Interest and Matching portfolios showed mixed results
The Interest portfolio achieved a small positive yield in the fourth quarter. The Matching portfolio recorded a negative yield of more than –2%, mainly due to rising 20 year interest rates on French and German government bonds.
A negative yield for participants in the Collective Variable Pension (CVP)
If you are retired or close to retirement and have chosen a variable pension, your pension capital is invested in the Collective Variable Pension (CVP) portfolio. Around 50% is invested in the Return portfolio, which delivered positive yields this quarter. The remainder consists of interest rate investments, designed to limit fluctuations in pension payments. These investments recorded a negative yield in Q4 2025. As a result, the value of the CVP portfolios fell by just over 1% in the quarter and by more than 3% across 2025.
However, the CVP portfolio’s yield does not tell the whole story. Pension payments also depend on the level of interest rates, which rose in 2025, positively affecting pension payments.
Want to know more about the CVP? Take a look at the e-learning(opens in new window).
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